Three Kings

Now that Dwayne Wade, Lebron James, and Chris Bosh have all joined the Miami Heat, lets take a realistic look at what the Heat can achieve next season. Opinion is mixed with some saying they’ll be the greatest team in history and win the NBA Championship, and others saying they won’t have enough complementary players and will be lucky to make the playoffs. The Heat are currently in the process of pursuing free-agents, notably: Mike Miller and Derek Fisher. Contrary to what has been reported, the Heat can offer more than the minimum salary. Because all 3 players took less money (about $15M less over the course of their respective deals), they’ve got about $8.3M to spend (before they only have minimum contracts to offer). A deal has nearly been finalized with Mike Miller for $25M over 5 years that will pay him $4.3M next season. That leaves about $4M to offer another free agent. Right now, they’re offering this money to Derek Fisher. While it is unlikely that Fisher would leave the Lakers after winning 5 championships with them, we all know that Pat Riley is a great salesman. He also has the Laker pedigree. Could he pry D-Fish away from L.A.? It’s doubtful. I think that Fisher is using the possibility to get more money out of the Lakers. I’d be stunned if he left L.A. If he doesn’t sign, the Heat still have this $4M to offer another player (again, before they’re forced to offer minimum contracts). Who else might be in the mix?

Udonis Haslem would love to stay in South Beach, and the Heat would love to have him. He gives them toughness and defense and he’s lived in South Florida all his life. The problem is that they’re using that $4M on someone else. He’d be forced to take a minimum contract even though he’d have offers from other teams for far more money. Would he be open to staying with the Heat for less money? D-Wade definitely wants him back and I could even envision a scenario where the Big 3 (D-Wade in particular) takes a even less money to make Haslem a compelling offer. I’d expect Riley to work something out and for Haslem to say. This would be an underrated move as it would give a starter quality back to Bosh off the bench. Who else could they go out and sign? Could they entice Shaq, at the end of his career and a shadow of his former self, to come back to Miami for another shot at the title? Would he take the minimum? Remember, the still have Mario Chalmers and they’ve made a qualifying offer to Joel Anthony which I doubt will be matched by anyone else. Other options could include guys like: Earl Watson and Raja Bell. So let’s envision the following team:

PG – Derek Fisher/Mario Chalmers/Patrick Beverley
SG – Dwayne Wade
SF – LeBron James/Mike Miller/DeSean Butler
PF – Chris Bosh/Udonis Haslem/Jarvis Varnado
C – Shaquille Oneal/Joel Anthony/Dexter Pittman

Even without Fisher and Shaq, they’d have 11 players under contract. Keep in mind that while they need 12 on the roster according to league rules, most coaches only uses a 7 to 8 man rotation. So they don’t need a stud at every position. Guys like Earl Watson have a lot of value as long as they can eat up minutes for them. Obviously it would be a coup if they could get Fisher and Shaq but I don’t see that happening.

So how will they play together next year? In my opinion, it will work fine. LeBron can (and probably should) play point guard. D-Wade can be the primary scorer and Bosh can be the force in the paint. They’ve got all the major positions covered. If they surround them with some good shooters and some hustle guys they should be fine. The Cavs won 61 games last year with LeBron and a bunch of complementary players. Should the Heat win more next year by comparison? Everyone will be gunning for them. I’m going to predict 60 wins for them next season. What’s more important is not how many they win in the regular season. It’s how many they win in the playoffs. One caveat here: If they don’t get some big bodies (ala Shaq) to help Bosh in the post, they’re going to have trouble with Dwight Howard and the Celtics in the playoffs. I love Bosh, but he can’t guard Dwight Howard and he’ll get banged up against Kendrick Perkins.

Will Bosh and Wade join King James and create the Three Kings by winning the NBA Championship? Or will they fall apart amidst the pressure. Only time will tell. Feel free to add your thoughts.

2010 NBA Finals: Celtics vs. Lakers Preview

At the beginning of this season, I posited that the Lakers would repeat as NBA champions. I believed this for a number of reasons. First, I thought the trade of Trevor Ariza for Ron Artest was basically an even swap. In fact, I thought they came out slightly ahead on this trade because Artest does have the ability to score in addition to his defensive abilities. I figured they’d probably end up playing the Cavs and with Artest abusing LeBron for 7 games, and Kobe able to freelance, the Lakers would have a built-in advantage. The Lakers are stacked up front with Bynum, Gasol, and Odom, making them a very good rebounding team. Basketball is a possession based game. Whoever gets the most possessions and makes the most of those opportunities, wins. Thus, having a big front line is a huge advantage. Let’s keep in mind however that the Celtics have a big front line as well. The combination of Garnett, Perkins, Sheed, and Davis somewhat offsets the Lakers advantage in the post.  Who then has the advantage in the series? I still believe that home court advantage, the fluidity afforded by the triangle offense, and Kobe Bryant will be too much for the Celtics. I’m picking the Lakers in 7.

That said, I came across something interesting today. According to +/- (see Autotrader +/- Stat on sidebar), the best 5-player combination in the playoffs so far has been a tie between Orlando: Vince, Rashard, Barnes, Dwight, and Jameer, and Boston: Allen, Pierce, Perkins, Rondo, Davis. Interestingly enough, that combination for Boston has only seen a combined 41 minutes of action in the playoffs. Perhaps the good performance is due to a small sample size. They’re starting lineup is very good as well, about 3rd best among starting lineups in the playoffs. Trouble is, the Lakers starting lineup has yielded +2.2 per game versus the Celtics +1.4. If we look at the regular season however, the Celtics were nearly twice as good as the Lakers, yielding about +5.2 per game versus the Lakers 3.8 per game. By way of comparison, the Magic were +2.9 for the playoffs (far better than both the Celtics and the Lakers). How then did the Celtics beat Orlando? +/- measures production for the team when the unit is on the floor versus production when they’re not. Hence the +/-. Theoretically, it captures everything that happens during the game. The problem with extrapolating this to an individual matchup is that these numbers capture +/- in aggregate over the course of a season. For that, we need a different tool.

If you click on the BasketballValue.com link on the sidebar and click Team vs. Team from the toolbar when you get there, select Celtics and Lakers. You can then follow below:

If you look at the very first section you’ll see that Boston’s starting-5 was actually -9.52 points versus the Lakers starting 5. What’s interesting is that the Lakers starting 5 lose in almost every combination against the Celtics except when they play the Celtics starting 5. In that case, the Lakers come out on top. Does this illustrate the weakness of the Lakers bench? Possibly. Overall, the Lakers are -13.59 versus the Celtics, while the Celtics are +11.94 against the Lakers. However, when the starting 5′s play each other, the Lakers win. Thus, Phil will probably have to log Kobe and Gasol for heavy minutes in this series.

Statistically, it looks like the Celtics have the advantage. The Lakers can’t play the entire starting 5 for all 48 minutes. If the Celtic bench is able to capitalize against the Laker bench then the Celtics have a chance. In the end though, I think you have to throw the numbers out and look at what has to happen. The Celtics have to steal home court advantage away from the Lakers and then take care of business at home. It’s possible, but I’m not sure it’s likely. Phil is a terrific coach and there is no better closer in the game than Kobe. Did you see him after before Game 6 at Phoenix? No smiles, all business. Did you see him after they won Game 6? No smiles, all business. The guy is ice cold. He’s not playing around until it’s all over. Jordan had that too. I give the Celtics a chance if they steal 1 in LA and then win both at home. Otherwise, it’s XI for Phil and 5 for Kobe. Read that again: 5 for Kobe. MJ will have to start looking over his shoulder pretty soon.

Conclusion: Lakers in 7

Rationale: Home court advantage, Phil Jackson, and Kobe Bryant too much for the Celtics

Lakers Clinch NBA Finals – ESPN Video – ESPN

The Lakers beat the Suns last night 111-103 to advance to the NBA Finals for the 3rd year in a row.

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Ron Artest / Craig Sager Interview – QB Queensbridge – 2010 NBA Playoffs

This is must see TV! Ron Artest being interviewed by Craig Sager shortly after he won game 5 of the Western Conference Playoffs for the Lakers. I don’t know what’s funny, Artest or Craig Sager’s suit.

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2010 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference – Basketball Analytics

This is from the 2010 MIT Sloan Sports Conference from the Basketball Analytics Panel. The panel includes: Mark Cuban, John Hollinger, Dean Oliver, Kevin Pritchard, Mike Zarren, and Marc Stein.

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Game Recap: Thunder vs. Spurs

Last night, the Thunder did it again. OKC beat the Spurs on their home court last night 101-98.  Kevin Durant dropped 25 and my man crush on Jeff Green continued as he posted 21 pts and 10 rebounds. Rather than give a complete recap of the game (which you can read on ESPN), I thought it more useful to post some observations instead. Since Royce already posts the Daily Bolts, I’ll call these observations (or mini bolts) the Daily Shock.

• Richard Jefferson takes really long strides to the basket. This usually allows him to get to the rim with only 2 or 3 steps where he’s pretty good at finishing. He tends to get fouled on alot of these plays which only compounds his effectiveness. He loses the ball on these plays occasionally but he’s still pretty effective.
• Nenad Krstic is a solid contributor for the Thunder but he’s definitely not a starter in the NBA. He would be a really good backup though. Either via the draft or free agency the Thunder have to get themselves a legit big man before they’re really contenders. Jeff Green does a great job as a 4 but he’s more of a hybrid 4 and not a banger like the Carlos Boozer’s and Al Jefferson’s of the world.
• Dajuan Blair is a really good rebounder. He’s definitely a load down low. He looked lost at times on the offensive end however and he got into foul trouble early. He started at Center last night for the Spurs. If I were an opposing team’s coach, I’d be aggresive taking it to the rim against him. It should draw alot of fouls. If he can cut down on the foul trouble he could be a really good rebounder in the league, even as a rookie. His per minute numbers are crazy. He’s posting 12.8 rebounds per 36 minutes and he’s rebounding 21.1% of the total available rebounds while he’s on the court. Not bad for a rookie.
• Kevin Durant should look to be even more aggressive taking the ball to the basket. He’s a very good shooter (eFG % of 44.7%) and at times he falls in love with his jumper. However, when he takes the ball to the basket he tends to get fouled alot and he’s such a terrific free throw shooter that he gets alot of and 1 opportunities. This happened a number of times during last night’s game against the Spurs.
• Jeff Green is a really good all around player (as I’ve written before). I won’t elaborate here but lets just say people are starting to take notice.
• According to the commentators, the Thunder are allowing the fewest points in the 4th quarter of any team in the NBA. They only allowed 10 pts to the Clippers on Wednesday, holding them to 3/19. Now that’s defense.
• Kevin Ollie is an unheralded pickup for the Thunder. He’s a strong veteran presence in the locker room and although he never posted impressive numbers, he’s a pro who knows how to run a team.
• Kevin Durant is really getting after it on defense this year. In his rookie year his defensive rating was 110. Last year it improved slightly to 109. As a refresher, defensive rating is the number of points a player allows per 100 possessions. Any number under 100 is above average. This year, KD is only yielding 97 points per 100 possessions. That is a big time improvement. In fact, of players that have played in at least 9 games (minimum 100 minutes), he’s # 16 in the entire league in defensive rating.

Invisible Man Pt. 2

So I’m in the midst of reading Dean Oliver’s excellent book Basketball on Paper and naturally I’ve been playing around with numbers. Using Basketball-Reference.com’s excellent website, I searched the current 2009-2010 season for players who had played at least 100 minutes and had a Defensive Rating less than 100. Defensive rating essentially measures how many points a player surrendered per 100 possessions. Obviously anything less than 100 is very good. The first thing that jumped out at me is that 5 Celtics were in the Top 10 (Rondo, Garnett, Kendrick Perkins, Rasheed Wallace, and Shelden Williams). No wonder they’re 7-1 and beating teams by a differential of +14.1! At any rate, as you scan down the list at #18 in the league is Jeff Green. He has a defensive rating of 96. That means for every 100 hundred possessions he’s surrendering 96 points. If we narrow the search to only include forwards, he jumps to #10 in the league. If we limit it to just the PF spot, he jumps to #6 in the league. At any rate, the point is to illustrate how valuable Jeff Green is to the Thunder, particularly on defense.

You can play with the results yourself at: http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi

The Invisible Man

If I gave you the following stat line, who would you guess it belongs to?

19.7ppg, 7.7rpg, 1.3spg, and 1.0 bpg.

Need a hint? He’s a power forward, he plays in the West, and he’s getting better. Any guesses? David West? No. LaMarcus Aldridge (close…but no), Paul Millsap…sorry. What if I told you that he played with a superstar and that he wasn’t even the second most recognizable player on the team? Give up?

Ladies and Gentlemen, I am pleased to introduce to you….Mr. Jeff Green. That’s right Jeff Green. Are you laughing yet? Go ahead…get it out now. Because by the time this article is over, you won’t be laughing anymore.

First, a history lesson. The fortunes of the Oklahoma City Thunder (then the Seattle Sonics) changed forever on June 28, 2007, when the team selected Kevin Durant with the 2^nd pick in the draft. Portland had already selected Greg Oden with the 1^st pick, ending months of speculation about who would go first. Since then, Kevin Durant has emerged as one of the best players in the NBA. The then Sonics could have stopped there. Instead, they made a trade with the Boston Celtics which gave them the rights to the # 5 pick in the draft, Wally Szczerbiak, Delonte West, and a 2008 2^nd round draft pick (Trent Plaisted) in exchange for Ray Allen and Glen Davis. This draft and the one following it were to pay huge dividends for the Thunder.

The new look Sonics/Thunder chose to build their team with Kevin Durant as the centerpiece, and Jeff Green as the Pippen to his Jordan. When they drafted Russell Westbrook last year, they took a defensive ball hawk with enormous athleticism and big time upside. This year, they rightly took James Harden to fill the shooting guard gap (no disrespect to Thabo Sefolosha).  While they still have a big hole in the middle, they probably have the most talented young team in the league along with the L.A. Clippers. Coach Scott Brooks and GM Sam Presti have done a great job with a young team and they seem to be headed in the right direction.

Back to Green. While everyone in the league recognizes that Jeff Green is a really good player, I think his star fades a bit next to the greatness of Durant and the emergence of Westbrook. He just quietly goes out and does his job every night. I was surprised to learn that he shot nearly 40% from 3 last year (38.9%) and hauled in about 6.5 boards. So far this year, he’s been outstanding. Though listed as a power forward, he’s probably more of a tweener. The Thunder list him at power forward to make room for Kevin Durant to play the 3 which is his natural position. Otherwise, Jeff would have to come off the bench. He’s one of those guys that just knows how to play. I think that’s the reason they drafted James Harden as well. He doesn’t have a flashy game. He just knows how to play. He’s like the perimeter version of Jeff Green.

I heard a commentator during the preseason mention that he thought Jeff Green had an outside shot at making the All-Star team this year. The way he’s playing now, he’ll certainly deserve it. But there are only a handful of forward spots available and when you’ve got Tim Duncan, Amare Stoudamire, Carmelo Anthony, and his teammate Kevin Durant, it’s hard to find room for him. Still, I think he could be in line for Most Improved Player this year.

What I like most about him is he’s getting better each year. His free throw numbers have increased in each of his first three seasons as follows: 74.4%, 78.8%, and 85.7% (this season). His steal numbers have also increased each season: 0.60, 1.00, and 1.30 (this season). Perhaps most importantly for his position, his rebound totals have increased each year as follows: 4.8, 6.6, and 7.6) this season. Lastly, his scoring has nearly doubled over that period: 10.5, 16.5. 19.7 (this season). His field goal percentage has also gone up each season, as has his true shooting %. The bottom line: this guy is working at his game and getting better each year. At 23 years of age, the sky is the limit for him going forward. It’s all the more impressive considering the fact that he plays with Durant and Westbrook, both of whom need the ball to be effective. In fact, if you look at his usage rate (number of possessions per 40 minutes), Jeff’s usage rate last year was 19.5 possessions per 40. Kevin Durant on the other hand used 26.0 possessions per 40 while Russell Westbrook used 25.0 possessions per 40. Considering that he’s put up similar if not better numbers than Russell using less possessions it would seem to me that they should give him a few more opportunities as he’s proven to be one of their most efficient players. He also turns the ball over at a lower rate than Russell 11.3% vs. 13.8% (though Russell used more possessions so his number is naturally higher). What’s amazing is that Kevin Durant has a lower turnover rate, only 11% of his possession end in turnovers and he’s got a higher usage rate than both Green and Westbrook. Considering how much of the offense he’s responsible for, that’s pretty remarkable.

So the next time you’re watching a Thunder game, try to pry your eyes away from the brilliance of Durant and the explosiveness of Russell Westbrook. And maybe, just maybe, you’ll catch a glimpse of the invisible man: Jeff Green.

2009 MIT Sloan Sports Conference – Basketball Analytics

This is from the 2009 MIT Sloan Sports Conference on Basketball Analytics. The panel includes: Daryl Morey (GM of the Houston Rockets), Mark Cuban (Dallas Mavericks owner), Dean Oliver (Director of Quantitative Research for the Denver Nuggets), Mike Zarren, John Hollinger (ESPN) and Marc Stein (ESPN).

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Introduction to Basketball Statistics

One of my goals in building this site was also to try and help consolidate the body of research into basketball statistics currently in practice. While there are clearly several sites that have attempted to do this (Knickerblogger.com, APBR boards, etc.) I felt I needed my own section for my readers.

My first foray into the statistics of basketball began with two books and a research article published in the Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports. They are as follows:

1. Basketball on Paper by Dean Oliver (Director of Quantitative Research for the Denver Nuggets)
2. Mathletics by Wayne Winston (consultant to the Dallas Mavericks)
3. A Starting Point for Analyzing Basketball Statistics by Justin Kubatko (Basketball-Reference.com), Dean Oliver (author of Basketball on Paper and Director of Quantitative Research for the Denver Nuggests), Kevin Pelton (Basketball Prospectus and consultant to the Oklahoma City Thunder), and Daniel T. Rosenbaum (UNC Greensboro and consultant to the Cleveland Cavaliers)

Basketball has undergone a statistical revolution over the last few years with these gentlemen at the forefront. The truth however is that statistics in sports is long running, particularly in baseball (the most stat driven sport of them all). There is a growing body of professionals, academicians, and hobbyists who are working to improve the statistical measurement of basketball. The NBA employs many of these “quants” to help provide a statistical explanation of wins. As it turns out, the most important concept here is the concept of the possession. Over the course of a full NBA game, the two teams will have equal possessions (within 1 or 2). Thus, possessions have no regard for pace. If the teams play at a frantic pace like the Denver Nuggets, there will be more possessions between the two teams but each team will have approximately the same number of possessions. That said, the only way a team can win is to score more points per possession. Thus, the quality (or efficiency) of a team’s scoring opportunities is important.

Think about it, it two teams simply trade two point buckets all night, the game will likely end in a tie. Thus, there have to be some misses, some 3′s, some free throws, etc. Thus the quality of a team’s shots often determines its success on the floor. Of course, no statistical system can explain all the variance in a data set. However, Dean Oliver’s 4 Factors seem to explain a good deal of the variance in wins. The 4 Factors are:

1. Shooting (Effective Field Goal %) – combines 2pt shots and 3pt shots to create a measure of shots from the field (not including free throws). The formula is: EFG % = FGM + 0.5(3PM) / FGA.
   
2. Turnovers per Possession – takes turnovers as a percentage of team possessions. You can get a close approximation of team possesions with the following formulas: Poss = FGA – OR+ TO + 0.4(FTA). Oliver determined that about 40% of free throw attempts are possession ending free throws. The formula for turnovers per possession is then: TOV = Turnovers / Possessions
3. Offensive Rebounding – the formula for this is already an official NBA statistic: OR = OR / (OR + Opponent Defensive Rebounds). In short, this is the team’s offensive rebounds divided by the total number of rebounds for both teams in the game or season.
4. Free Throw Rate – the formula for this is: Free Throws Made / Total Field Goals Attempted. This is an indication of the rate at which a team gets to the line. The thinking is that the more a team gets to the line (as a percentage of its total possessions) the more opportunities they have to score and stop the clock.

The 4 Factors are often used as the basis for modern statistical analysis in basketball (though many other metrics exist). This is just an introduction with additional posts to follow.