2010 NBA Finals: Celtics vs. Lakers Preview
At the beginning of this season, I posited that the Lakers would repeat as NBA champions. I believed this for a number of reasons. First, I thought the trade of Trevor Ariza for Ron Artest was basically an even swap. In fact, I thought they came out slightly ahead on this trade because Artest does have the ability to score in addition to his defensive abilities. I figured they’d probably end up playing the Cavs and with Artest abusing LeBron for 7 games, and Kobe able to freelance, the Lakers would have a built-in advantage. The Lakers are stacked up front with Bynum, Gasol, and Odom, making them a very good rebounding team. Basketball is a possession based game. Whoever gets the most possessions and makes the most of those opportunities, wins. Thus, having a big front line is a huge advantage. Let’s keep in mind however that the Celtics have a big front line as well. The combination of Garnett, Perkins, Sheed, and Davis somewhat offsets the Lakers advantage in the post. Who then has the advantage in the series? I still believe that home court advantage, the fluidity afforded by the triangle offense, and Kobe Bryant will be too much for the Celtics. I’m picking the Lakers in 7.
That said, I came across something interesting today. According to +/- (see Autotrader +/- Stat on sidebar), the best 5-player combination in the playoffs so far has been a tie between Orlando: Vince, Rashard, Barnes, Dwight, and Jameer, and Boston: Allen, Pierce, Perkins, Rondo, Davis. Interestingly enough, that combination for Boston has only seen a combined 41 minutes of action in the playoffs. Perhaps the good performance is due to a small sample size. They’re starting lineup is very good as well, about 3rd best among starting lineups in the playoffs. Trouble is, the Lakers starting lineup has yielded +2.2 per game versus the Celtics +1.4. If we look at the regular season however, the Celtics were nearly twice as good as the Lakers, yielding about +5.2 per game versus the Lakers 3.8 per game. By way of comparison, the Magic were +2.9 for the playoffs (far better than both the Celtics and the Lakers). How then did the Celtics beat Orlando? +/- measures production for the team when the unit is on the floor versus production when they’re not. Hence the +/-. Theoretically, it captures everything that happens during the game. The problem with extrapolating this to an individual matchup is that these numbers capture +/- in aggregate over the course of a season. For that, we need a different tool.
If you click on the BasketballValue.com link on the sidebar and click Team vs. Team from the toolbar when you get there, select Celtics and Lakers. You can then follow below:
If you look at the very first section you’ll see that Boston’s starting-5 was actually -9.52 points versus the Lakers starting 5. What’s interesting is that the Lakers starting 5 lose in almost every combination against the Celtics except when they play the Celtics starting 5. In that case, the Lakers come out on top. Does this illustrate the weakness of the Lakers bench? Possibly. Overall, the Lakers are -13.59 versus the Celtics, while the Celtics are +11.94 against the Lakers. However, when the starting 5′s play each other, the Lakers win. Thus, Phil will probably have to log Kobe and Gasol for heavy minutes in this series.
Statistically, it looks like the Celtics have the advantage. The Lakers can’t play the entire starting 5 for all 48 minutes. If the Celtic bench is able to capitalize against the Laker bench then the Celtics have a chance. In the end though, I think you have to throw the numbers out and look at what has to happen. The Celtics have to steal home court advantage away from the Lakers and then take care of business at home. It’s possible, but I’m not sure it’s likely. Phil is a terrific coach and there is no better closer in the game than Kobe. Did you see him after before Game 6 at Phoenix? No smiles, all business. Did you see him after they won Game 6? No smiles, all business. The guy is ice cold. He’s not playing around until it’s all over. Jordan had that too. I give the Celtics a chance if they steal 1 in LA and then win both at home. Otherwise, it’s XI for Phil and 5 for Kobe. Read that again: 5 for Kobe. MJ will have to start looking over his shoulder pretty soon.
Conclusion: Lakers in 7
Rationale: Home court advantage, Phil Jackson, and Kobe Bryant too much for the Celtics
