Three Kings
Now that Dwayne Wade, Lebron James, and Chris Bosh have all joined the Miami Heat, lets take a realistic look at what the Heat can achieve next season. Opinion is mixed with some saying they’ll be the greatest team in history and win the NBA Championship, and others saying they won’t have enough complementary players and will be lucky to make the playoffs. The Heat are currently in the process of pursuing free-agents, notably: Mike Miller and Derek Fisher. Contrary to what has been reported, the Heat can offer more than the minimum salary. Because all 3 players took less money (about $15M less over the course of their respective deals), they’ve got about $8.3M to spend (before they only have minimum contracts to offer). A deal has nearly been finalized with Mike Miller for $25M over 5 years that will pay him $4.3M next season. That leaves about $4M to offer another free agent. Right now, they’re offering this money to Derek Fisher. While it is unlikely that Fisher would leave the Lakers after winning 5 championships with them, we all know that Pat Riley is a great salesman. He also has the Laker pedigree. Could he pry D-Fish away from L.A.? It’s doubtful. I think that Fisher is using the possibility to get more money out of the Lakers. I’d be stunned if he left L.A. If he doesn’t sign, the Heat still have this $4M to offer another player (again, before they’re forced to offer minimum contracts). Who else might be in the mix?
Udonis Haslem would love to stay in South Beach, and the Heat would love to have him. He gives them toughness and defense and he’s lived in South Florida all his life. The problem is that they’re using that $4M on someone else. He’d be forced to take a minimum contract even though he’d have offers from other teams for far more money. Would he be open to staying with the Heat for less money? D-Wade definitely wants him back and I could even envision a scenario where the Big 3 (D-Wade in particular) takes a even less money to make Haslem a compelling offer. I’d expect Riley to work something out and for Haslem to say. This would be an underrated move as it would give a starter quality back to Bosh off the bench. Who else could they go out and sign? Could they entice Shaq, at the end of his career and a shadow of his former self, to come back to Miami for another shot at the title? Would he take the minimum? Remember, the still have Mario Chalmers and they’ve made a qualifying offer to Joel Anthony which I doubt will be matched by anyone else. Other options could include guys like: Earl Watson and Raja Bell. So let’s envision the following team:
PG – Derek Fisher/Mario Chalmers/Patrick Beverley
SG – Dwayne Wade
SF – LeBron James/Mike Miller/DeSean Butler
PF – Chris Bosh/Udonis Haslem/Jarvis Varnado
C – Shaquille Oneal/Joel Anthony/Dexter Pittman
Even without Fisher and Shaq, they’d have 11 players under contract. Keep in mind that while they need 12 on the roster according to league rules, most coaches only uses a 7 to 8 man rotation. So they don’t need a stud at every position. Guys like Earl Watson have a lot of value as long as they can eat up minutes for them. Obviously it would be a coup if they could get Fisher and Shaq but I don’t see that happening.
So how will they play together next year? In my opinion, it will work fine. LeBron can (and probably should) play point guard. D-Wade can be the primary scorer and Bosh can be the force in the paint. They’ve got all the major positions covered. If they surround them with some good shooters and some hustle guys they should be fine. The Cavs won 61 games last year with LeBron and a bunch of complementary players. Should the Heat win more next year by comparison? Everyone will be gunning for them. I’m going to predict 60 wins for them next season. What’s more important is not how many they win in the regular season. It’s how many they win in the playoffs. One caveat here: If they don’t get some big bodies (ala Shaq) to help Bosh in the post, they’re going to have trouble with Dwight Howard and the Celtics in the playoffs. I love Bosh, but he can’t guard Dwight Howard and he’ll get banged up against Kendrick Perkins.
Will Bosh and Wade join King James and create the Three Kings by winning the NBA Championship? Or will they fall apart amidst the pressure. Only time will tell. Feel free to add your thoughts.
